The National Institute of Health has put together a really cool body weight simulator that takes your height, weight, calorie intake and level of activity, and then estimates your change in weight if you change the inputs. I entered in my stats a little over a month ago, and so far the projection is right on schedule.
Below is a projected one-year graph showing what my weight could be if, for the first three months, I gradually reduce my calorie intake to 2,500 per day and increase my exercise to bike an hour about 4 times a week; and then, for the second three months, I increase my calorie intake to 3,000 per day and throw in a 2-hour bike ride on weekends.
When I input my numbers on May 15, I was 214 pounds. As of this morning I was 210.8 pounds, and that's right about on schedule. If I stay on course -- and the NIH is right -- I should hit 200 in the first week of August, hit 190 by mid-September, 185 around my birthday in late October, and 180 by the beginning of February 2013. And if I keep biking and not pigging out, the gubmint thinks I'll level out somewhere around 175!
Frankly I'd be happy with 190, and 180 would be amazing. That's my Fightin' Weight, and I haven't been there in nearly 10 years. I'll keep checking my progress against the graph to see if those government bean counters actually know what they're talking about.
Pretty cool! Input your own numbers at http://bwsimulator.niddk.nih.gov/
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